The funny thing is that these "analysts" seem to think MS is somehow new to the gaming market. They have been into the game far longer than the existence of the XBox brand but are now establishing XBox as more than just a console. I buy XBox games and music on my smartphone, computer and 360, meaning they have quite effectively set up an infrastructure consisting of three different platforms. While I am sure they would like to be the console sales leader, I do believe they are looking at this in a MUCH broader picture than most of us believe.
People for example look at XBLA as a way for MS to extort money from their gamers just for getting access to things like Netflix. I am quite sure MS sees XBLA as a way to change how we pay to play and to create an aura of exclusivity around their product, something that has been successful.
That being said, MS gas made a number of mistakes, mainly in the way they have dismissed Europe, not establishing XBLA in the same strong way as in the US and also not investing in exclusive games (besides some awesome XBLA ones). But as a whole, I believe they a more future proof model to work with than Sony or Nintendo.
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