The other thing that becomes obvious when looking at Nintendo consoles that have been successful (relatively) is they all had an "X Factor" game and that game shows up usually in the 1st year of the console's release.
By "X Factor" I mean a game that isn't a Mario/Zelda traditional IP and broadens the appeal of the system.
SNES had Street Fighter II which really caused sales to spike. SNES from there on really became the go to system for fighting games and arcade ports, barring the brief Mortal Kombat 1 controversy.
GoldenEye certainly did its job, though the N64 was ultimately hog tied by terrible droughts brought on by the cartridge format. But GoldenEye was a pivotal game. And the N64 became synonmous with console FPS and multiplayer games.
Wii Sports. Obviously. There were about a bazillion mini-game comps for the Wii largely chasing its success.
Seems to me like the two consoles that basically tried to rely on the usual Nintendo franchises/old franchises solely to do everything -- the GameCube and Wii U have the biggest problems.
You need to have an X-Factor game, something that brings in a different audience, and right now the Wii U doesn't have that and unless Bayonetta 2 or X become huge hits, it doesn't look like it's getting that or that Nintendo's even trying. Perhaps they bet the farm on Nintendo Land being that game.
Mario + Mario Kart + Zelda is only getting you about 25 million users. You gotta have something else to go far beyond that. That's really what defines a successful Nintendo console I think, is the question of "What Else?". People know a Nintendo console brings you Mario/Mario Kart/Zelda/DK ... the question is "what else you got Nintendo?". What new game/experience/gimmick/fad/breathrough/idea is there?
Even when you look at the 3DS ... Japan is the only market where the 3DS is selling up to Nintendo's expectations (by their own admission). And what's the difference ... the 3DS has an X-Factor there in Monster Hunter being exclusive (effectively). It's the smartest thing Nintendo has done in the last two years was to take that franchise away from Sony entirely.
