Nintendo's WII -U will win the Holiday Season and the Next Gen IF

[S.T.A.G.E.]

Nirvana_Nut85 said:

S.T.A.G.E. said:

You're a smart one aren't you? It's quite obvious the Wii is a once in a blue moon ordeal. The marketshare Nintendo amassed last gen will not be here in the next gen, which is why analysts have predicted that this generation the overall marketshare will shrink. When nintendo fails a gimmick, they are basically back to feeding their loyal crowd which hangs at around thirty million. If they up their third party at least a bit more they'll be able to make it forty by the end of this generation. Of all the people to understand my point, I thought Michael Pachter would be the last. Nintendo will need third party support more than you know because this generation is going to be very, very rough.

First of all, Nintendo has never relied on 3rd part multiplats and it would be absurd to assume they did now. Patcher has basically been wrong on every Nintendo related prediction and it would not be wise to take his crystal ball predictions.

Mario Kart which was a core Nintendo game that now has huge appeal to the casuals. They are releasing casual friendly first party games this fall which will take back some of that crowd. Will Wii U sell 100 million? Probably not but when it takes off this fall ( and it will) I would bet my bank account it will end up with at least 50 million sales at the end of this gen!

Yes, according to history Nintendo did depend on third parties, but they ruled them with an unwavering attitude. They couldn't spread to Sega because Sega during the Genesis era couldn't spread their marketshare until the SNES era and had to rely solely on first party which made everything from action games to first party sports titles just to measure up. Eventually when the Playstation and Saturn came there was alternative hardware with CD technology and Nintendo was afraid of piracy so they stuck with discs. Third party wanted Discs, especially since the trend with CD roms was already the norm on PC in the mid 90's. Nintendo stuck with cartidges and sealed their fate and lost half of their marketshare because of it.

Pachter has not been wrong about all things Nintendo, and obviously the man is not perfect, but he has to have done something right as a Wedbush analyst or else he wouldn't have a job. 

I'll bet the Wii U without third parties will struggle to reach forty million. The reason I say this is because without third party the first parties audience doesn't grow exponentially, it generally stays the same. The Wii's case was widely exceptional.

If you have paid attention to the sales of hardware, all consoles that lacked third party have had a hard time winning any generation.