To be honest, I think VGC's Xenoblade numbers are massively overtracked. It sold 400,000 in North America basically all through GameStop and GameStop didn't bother to ask for a second shipment? Most of the copies on their storeshelves were gone within the first couple of months too.
It's only now after 2 years that they get a very small amount of dead stock?
I don't buy it. It's more likely IMO the North American sales are more along the lines of 160-200k just like Europe.
To really make X a success, Nintendo would really have to spend a lot of money marketing it, and I don't think they have much interest in doing so. The best bet is that it's such a good game that the game media really starts to pump it up as a GOTY candidate and that gives it much more exposure.
Kid Icarus Uprising is basically a new IP (for all intents and purposes), on a 3DS userbase that will be larger than what the Wii U userbase will be if X launches next year, and Nintendo actually did market that game (at least by their standards) and it still only managed about 1 million worldwide.
I don't see X topping that unfortunately. It will have a smaller userbase to sell to and what is probably a more niche genre.
I hope it does well, but I'm having trouble seeing it.
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