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I don't think DiCaprio perfomace will be good enough as matter of fact he should be a distance third with Matthew McConaughey being a close second (could win also) for his performance in Dallas Buyers Club.  DiCaprio might not even get nominated Steve Carell will probably get nominated for his role in Foxcatcher and there will probably be a couple of more better performances in movies that are not on my radar yet and there are only five spots available.  Idris Elba will probably get nominated also for Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom.  DiCaprio will have a better change if that Teddy Roosevelt bio pic will be revived and made sometime in the future.  Playing a historical figure very good increases your changes at a Oscar.