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spurgeonryan said:
The Desolation of Smaug will lose some money from the first movie. Isn't that usually how it happens? People who did not see the first one, will not want to see the second one, and so on and so forth.


The second one will make slightly more then the first one you are forgetting about the people that didn't watch the first one in theaters but saw it at home and it impressed them enough to go and see the second one in theaters.  Plus there a lot of people that like to watch IMAX and 3D movies once in a while so they will see it because its one of the better ones showing during the holiday season.