How much do you think Tales of Symphonia: Dawn of the New World will sell?

[ZenfoldorVGI]

quigontcb said:

patjuan32 said:
quigontcb,

You can not use Dragon Quest Swords as a guide as to how Tales will sell. DQS is just a better version of a game that Square released a couple of years earlier that had it's own controller and connected to a TV. It was not a new idea or a full fledge RPG like Tales of Symphonia.

The best way to gauge how any game will sell is to compare it to other games on that system. For instance: we know that many games on the 360 have heavily frontloaded sales in NA, while many Wii games in NA have smaller debuts and make their sales over a period of time.

DQS has sold roughly twice what the nearest third party game(which is an origianl title) in Japan has sold. I'm aware that DQS was originally a tv plug-and-play game, but that has little bearing on how the game has sold on the Wii(in my opinion). Without checking to make sure, I believe that DQS and RE: UC are the only third party games to even crack 200k in Japan. Japan has shown they don't mind buying remakes(check the DQ and FF games on other systems) by the boatload.

I'm not saying the right third party games won't sell in Japan. I know that a proper DQ or FF game would move a ton of systems over there, but that's kind of the point. Many of the people that own or are buying Wii's in Japan are only interested in Nintendo's traditional and new casual games. Traditional gamers on the Wii buy the Zelda/RE/Fire Emblem-type games in the first week or so, and then sales slow to a crawl.

I hope that Tales ends up being the traditional third party breakout hit that the Wii needs in Japan. The Tales game are fairly popular in Japan, but not that popular. Like I said, I'd be pleasantly surprised if Tales reaches 500k lifetime sales in Japan. It's quite possible, but not likely given Wii third party sales, and traditional game sales in general(in Japan).

500k in Japan alone is impossible. My prediction would go:

 

200k+ Japan

400k US

350k Others

 

More or less, those numbers are very hopeful, and the games sales will be largely review based, imo.

 

As for Nintendo in Japan, they don't exactly "need" anything. If Nintendo is in dire "need" of anything in Japan, then Sony and Microsoft might as well just stop shipping units to the country, because they're dead.