WiiU will sell better than Gamecube.

[Gamerace]

Zero999 said:

Gamerace said:
DFC Intelligence had some ridiculous projections back at the start of the last gen so I don't give their estimates any credance.

Originally (last spring) I projected WiiU with 30m lifetime sales (and everyone said I was crazy and way too low). Now, that guess is looking way over-optimistic. While I'm sure sales will pick up over the current tripid level, but great games will simply come too late and WiiU started at too high a price point (for what it's offering) for it to ever become in demand. Add an overall shrinking market and greater competition in the field and even hitting 20m seems highly optimistic to me now.

I think Nintendo realizes it's made some fundimentally bad mistakes with WiiU. I think they've known it pre-launch but were too committed to change course. However, the question remains how long do they stay with WiiU? My guess is if sales don't turn around - dramatically - by Mario Kart 8 dropping, WiiU will have the shortest lifespan of any Nintendo console. Fact is the market is changing radically and if Nintendo is to ever have another hit home console or home/portable console it needs to be released sooner rather than later. So if WiiU/3DS continue to underperform I project a new Nintendo system in 2016 to compete more directly with PS4/XB1 and to also more significantly differeniate from them than WiiU does from PS3/360.

Consequently WiiU's lifetime sales will be cut even shorter. Probably <15m.

bolded: no, everyone was right.

b2: so wii u is expensive but other consoles releasing one year later for $100 and $200 more than wii u at launch aren't? ok. your probable response: they offer much more. my logical response: I wouldn't say those consoles are even offering more than ps360 right now.

b3: omg, so 3ds is underperforming? THE MARKET LEADER FOR BOTH HANDHELDS AND HOME CONSOLES IS UNDERPERFORMING? REALLY?

your point of view isn't pessimistic, pessimism would mean you THINK that will happen. but the truth is you WANT the listed things to happen, no arguments, just your will.

I also predicted in 2007 Wii would sell 20m that year and win this generation.  At that time only two people agreed with me and everyone else thought I was nuts.    

I have no hate for Nintendo, nor any slavish love.  I find the industry interesting to watch and call it like I see it.    In 2006 I saw Nintendo was onto something monumental when everyone on sites like these had written Nintendo off completely.    Now I've been saying since E3 2012 that Nintendo's completely missed the boat with WiiU (and so far been proven right).    I am also unimpressed by PS4/XB1.   PS4 will fare better initially but XB1 has more potential.   However, I think the entire market will shrink significantly.     Mobile and systems like Ouya (but not Ouya, Ouya won't do well) and the Steambox and PC with virtual gaming, etc., will both grow the market and shrink the traditional home console market.    None of the big three have done enough (yet) to stave off this drop.

Sony has been the most conservative and aimed directly for the gamers and this will do them well, MS and Nintendo tried to cast bigger nets but Nintendo totally missed that call and judgement is out for MS.   But I suspect MS has more up it's sleeves to be revealed over the coming years.  They have a long term vision which should (should but may not, it is MS afterall) see them rise to the top this gen but still sell less than 360 did.

Of course all of this is my estimated guesses and I haven't always been right, but I've often been right when the mass thinking said exactly the opposite.

b2: PS4 is $50 more and yes I agree.  To many their won't be a signigant reason to upgrade.  The games are basically the same.

b3: 3DS is doing well in Japan.   It's NA and PAL sales leave something to be desired (but aren't horrible, but really, the 8 year old PS3 shouldn't even come close to 3DS sales in what should be it's peak years, yet some weeks it outsells it).  Even Nintendo admits this is so.   This despite Vita being a huge flop basically giving the 3DS the market all to itself.    Leading the market when the market is made up of ancient and failing systems is no cause to rejoice