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it does mean nintendo is playing it safe, but not in every way.

is nintendo playing it safe gameplay-wise? somewhat, but nintendo has a way of creating new spins on old formulas that keeps their games from feeling too stale.

even nsmb, which is a series that many people feel is uninspired, continued to evolve with it's latest installment: nsmbu had challenge levels that were quite fun.

i would also argue that skyward sword, though very similar to a lot of other zelda titles, made great strides to innovate with it's motion-controlled swordplay.

is nintendo playing it safe by using brand/franchise recognition as a means to sell more games? probably, but what's wrong with that? no other gaming company in the world has as powerful an image as mario, so why wouldn't they continue to use mario?

super mario 3d land was a new take on the mario platforming formula, and now super mario 3d world is a home console, 4 player adaption of that. So far there are only two mario games that are 3d/2d in the way these two games are. Sure there are segments of Super Mario Galaxy where you explore on a 2d landscape, but that lacks the 3d element of 3d land/world.