Lol, i'm not sure they get that budget (KZ2 one is huge and it's around 35 millions), but I'm talking about advertising.
And you're making a few mistakes about MGS2/MGS3.
MGS2 was released 12 (occident) to 18 (japan) months after PS2 launch, and in the US, 2 weeks before GTA III (talking about competition).
MGS3 was of course hyper hyped, as any sequel to a 7 millions units title would be, and It wasen't of course released "quietly". The coverage closely rivaled MGS2 one.
I'll add that, in both case, MGS was released at the best period (Xmas) and the PS2 install based was way bigger that PS3 is/will be by MGS4 release.
I don't think MG4 launch conditions are that good.







