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Gears 2 (except if MGS goes multi format).

Quality beside, MGS4 will

1- be released on a console with a smaller install base than Gears 2.
2- probably be released around the same time that GTA IV, which can't be good, no matter which game we're talking about.
3- won't be released at Xmas (which will be Gears 2's case)
4- have a gameplay that is less accessible than Gears.
5- won't have a bigger advertising campaign than Gears 2 (cause Konami's pockets are not even close from MS ones)