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MGS4 is going to be a better game. I'm sure of that. Problem is that Metal Gear has an enormous backstory. It's spanned consoles from the Nes, to the MSX, to all of Sony's gaming machines. It takes a lot of investment to follow Snake's adventure. Many of those who enjoyed the previous games haven't gotten a PS3 (yet).

Gears was a hyped mega hit that sold very well to a smaller user base. It's only been on one console, and I'm sure it will receive a price cut prior to Gears 2. GoW2 is going to take it.

That said, Nintendo's biggest selling game will be the biggest game of '08. Sony's best selling game will be 2008's second biggest seller. The 360's biggest game (Gears 2) is going to be third. -not counting handhelds.