ok, so the XBox360 came out in NOV? 2006, ~4 years after the original XBox came out. So 4 years later would be NOV 2010. However, from what I've gathered, Microsoft discontinued the original XBox because a contract for their video card went bad, and instead of creating a new contract and reworking the Motherboard to accommodate a new video card, they decided to drop the XBox and start new with the 360.
Essentially, I do not think Microsoft will come out with XBox3 until at least ~NOV 2011, as this would be normal lifetime for a console. By then, people will want a new console despite the fact that Sony claims the PS3 has a 10 year life. So there really isn't much to worry about. I mean I bought a Gamecube near launch and it feels like the thing has been out forever.
I also think this increased worry about new consoles coming out to soon is due to the higher price of systems. It used to be $300 was a lot for a console. Who wants to dump $600 on a PS3 if Sony is going to replace it in ~5 years (which should be expected).
Essentially, whoever launches a console first, will be followed by the other 2 within 1 year, and they will all have new features to make them the console to buy.
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