the importance of 3d mario will play a huge role for Wii U

[Soundwave]

I think Wii U's baseline will be 2.5x what it is now after Mario 3D/Mario Kart U. 

In other words, better, but not through the roof.

Wii Sports is what drove the Wii, the Mario games just piggybacked off it.

Plus there was higher appeal for Mario that gen IMO, because a lot of people skipped the GameCube and even the N64 in some cases, so a lot of people hadn't played Mario Kart and Mario in many years (even a decade plus).

In other words there was a large built-up hunger for games like Mario Kart Wii and New Super Mario Bros. Wii once they got their Wii for Wii Sports/Fit.

That will not be the case this gen as Nintendo is over-saturating their platforms with Mario games all over the place.

Even if Mario 3D on Wii U is as good Mario 64, rather than Mario Sunshine, Mario 64 couldn't push the N64 past 33 million. The N64 had the perfect 3D Mario + 3D Zelda + Mario Kart and GoldenEye for good measure and still couldn't accelerate much further past the 30 million barrier. You need something else in that mix.