Has Nintendo Lost Touch With North America?

[Michael-5]

Soundwave said:

Michael-5 said:

Just want to say that, while 3DS is down YoY atm, it won't be for long. 3DS sold well for the first 3 months of 2012 because of an $80 price cut in 2011. During Q3/Q4 3DS didn't sell that well, that's why 2012 sales aren't a big jump from 2011 sales.

For 2013, 3DS is selling better per week then it did in 2012, and the gap will likely grow with Animal Crossing releasing in North America, and especially Pokemon's release. Plus we don't know what other games will release this fall for 3DS.

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For Wii U, yes it's having a slow start, but have faith. PS4 and Infinity are rumored to cost $500 or so at launch, where Wii U is $300/$350. Wii U also has had very little software, where Wii released with a main Zelda entry and Wii Sports. Once Mario Kart 8 and Wii Fit U come out, Wii U sales should boom.

8th gen is going to start slow, for all consoles, mostly because the 7th gen lasted so long, and because the graphical jump to PS4/Infinity isn't that large. There are so many PS3/360 games out there, people aren't ready to migrate yet. Remember how long it took PS2 fans to migrate to the PS3? Well this gen it's going to take even longer, so don't expect Wii U sales to really go nuts until 2014 or 2015.

I'm starting to think Nintendo games don't really cause the "boost" that people think they do. After the initial "surge" in hardware (which is usually brought on by Mario games), Nintendo fans generally just come on board at their own rate per month, and isn't so much of a "I'm waiting for Luigi's Mansion and Luigi's Mansion only until I buy a 3DS" type situation.

Because 3DS has bigger games being released this year so far, in Luigi's Mansion 2, Fire Emblem 2, Pokemon Mystery Dungeon, and LEGO City vs. Kid Icarus Uprising and Spirit Camera last year.

Yet sales of hardware are flat or even down. And that's with two hardware models (regular and XL this year) versus only one last year. I think part of it is Nintendo fans tend to not just like one franchise but many Nintendo franchises. So a fan of Pokemon isn't just going to sit there and wait for Pokemon 3DS to come out until they buy a 3DS. Mario 3D Land and Mario Kart 7 may hold them over for example.

I kinda agree with you on a "boost" in Wii U sales, but like you said there is an initial "surge" in hardware, which Wii U still hasn't seen. Mario Kart 8 and Wii Fit U will provide that initial surge. Mario Kart 8 in fall 2013 will likely make a big impact to not only 2013 sales, but 2014-2016 sales since most Wii U owners will likely pick up Mario Kart 8 (Actually, Mario Kart usually sells 1/3rd as many copies as consoles available, compare MK64/DD/Wii to their respective hardware sales).

So until Mario Kart 8 and other casual games, Wii U sales will be slow, and once they release, they will stabilize at a much higher weekly level.

As for 3DS, like I said the $80 price cut in fall 2011 made a huge impact on sales for nearly an entire year later. However 3DS popularity is growing, weekly sales are now generally up YoY, and tey will stay up YoY for the rest of the year, except for maybe August when 3DS XL released in 2012.

Also, while most Nintendo fans aren't fans of 1 franchise, they might not like what the 3DS has currently available. Super Mario 3D Land and Mario Kart 7 were enough of a reason for many people to own a 3DS, and that's why 3DS had excellent fall 2011 and spring 2012 sales, and that's definatly why 3DS was down for Q1 2013 compared to Q1 2012. Pokemon will be the nest big "surge" which will give fall 2014 an uphill battle. Plus lets not forget, Nintendo was still releasing multiple good Pokemon games for the DS in 2012, why would a Pokemon fan get a 3DS, Pokemon is still releasing for DS?

Plus like you said, Nintendo fans trickle in, so another major franchise should put weekly sales at a higher stabilization.