8th gen sales curve predictions

[zorg1000]

Soleron said:
Wii U: No price cut this year. The core Nintendo games will come out late 2013 - early 2014 but third party support will never be there, leading to a modest upswing finishing at 20-25m units worldwide and peaking in 2014.

PS4: Day1 spike but not Christmas spike. The price will be too high to justify the very small number of PS4-only exclusives, when most games especially third party will be available on PS3, and some like GT6 will be PS3-only. 2014 will be very slow as third parties avoid next-gen exclusives. 2015 is when we will see the first games that don't release for PS3/360 as well, and it will recover much the same as the PS3 did but never to the same pace as the price will come down much slower due to lack of technology.

720: Similar to PS4 but lower. Kinect and associated games will fail to sell as long as it's >$300. Even fewer exclusives/reasons to buy than PS4 because of weak first party support and third parties even more strongly attached to 360/Live. Particularly very low Live subscriptions until Halo comes out in late 2014.

Both systems will be on the market for six years. MS and Sony would prefer 7+ but sales are so weak that they are cancalled sooner.

Wii U will be replaced after four years on the market with something completely different.

We seem to see eye to eye on most things except I habe a little more faith in Wii U. 2nd half of this year thru 2015 should be pretty solid for it, PS4/Xbox will be priced much higher and in direct competition with PS360 while Nintendo will have its core fanbase, casuals (not nearly as much as Wii but still a solid amount), people looking for a 2nd console. I think Wii U will sell around 50m lifetime and have a successor in 2016-17, possibly a console/handheld hybrid "3rd pillar" that will coexist with WiiU/3DS for 1-2 years then become the sole Nintendo console.

I agree with PS4/Xbox and expect them to do about PS4-80m and Xbox-70m. Xbox having the NA/UK market while PS4 has Europe/Japan/Other and both seeing a successor in 2018-2020 but most likely 2019.