This isnt about how many total sales each system will do but moreso about how they will do each individual year. Wii had a traditional 5 year sales curve where it built up momentum and peaked in its 3rd year then had a gentle decline for the next few years, on the other hand PS3 and 360 started off slow and and peaked much later(PS3 due to price coming down, 360 due to Kinect giving it a second wind).
Wii U-right now were seeing a slow start mostly because many of its games have been delayed. I believe that will all change later this year with a potential price cut and big 1st party games like Wii Fit/Party, Pikmin, Wind Waker, Mario Kart plus solid 3rd party multiplats, all in all we should see 6-8 million Wii U sold this year. That momentum will continue into 2014 with heavy hitters like 3D Mario (Q1), Smash Bros (Q2), Metroid (Q3), Zelda (Q4) for a total of 12-15 million Wii Us sold 2014. 2015 coulf see sales start to decline but a price drop to $199 and games like New Super Mario World and Nintendo Land 2 keeps sales high, 10-12million this year. The next few years will likely see a steady decline, 2016 7-9m, 2017 5-6m, 2018 3-4m.
PS4/XBOX-these consoles will likely have a solid launch but 2014 will have a slow start, $400-500 price tag+majorit of games available on PS360+Wii U gaining momentum being the reasons. I see Xbox doin 6-8m and PS4 7-9m. 2015 will see a decent gain in sales as games start showing off the next gen power and fewer games being released on PS360 plus this could be when they recieve there first price cut, both could be around 10-12m this year. 2016/17 is when i think they will peak, PS360 will basically see support dry up, Wii U beginning to decline and reching sub $300 price tags. Sales for these years 12-15m each. 2018-2020 will see steady declines much like Wii U in 2016-18.
Overall I see Wii U having a similar curve to Wii but closer to PS360 yearly sales and PS4/Xbox having similar sales to PS360 as well but peaking 1-2 years earlier since PS4 should reach $300 sooner than its predeccessor and Xbox not having a mid gen upgrade to boost sales so late into its life.
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.







