My guess is it's not Metroid. Nintendo was IMO dissapointed with the sales of the recent Metroid games, not just Other M, but Prime 3 too considering the Wii was red hot when it came out.
If I had to guess I would say Star Fox Wii U is what they're primarily working on, while assisting EAD on Mario Kart U at the same time.
Retro relaunched the Metroid and DKC franchises for Nintendo, it would make sense to give them Star Fox and see if they can't kick start the franchise.
We know for a fact that Iwata has been looking for a studio to get Star Fox going again, because he approached Sakurai with the idea of making either a new Star Fox or a new Kid Icarus, and Sakurai chose Kid Icarus.
I think a really well done Star Fox would outsell a really well done Metroid as well, Star Fox is just more mainstream and there's a lot that could be done with the second screen concept in Star Fox.
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