Depends on four factors.
1. The Yen. If the Yen continues to fall, then profitability rises, making a lower price-point more practical.
2. Rate of Sale. If the Wii U maintains, or sees less than a 50% increase in its baseline between now and Autumn the situation will be desperate enough for them to consider such drastic options.
3. Prominence of Next Gen Xbox/PS. If either console manages to price itself within $100 ($50 with a subsidized box) of the Wii U, Nintendo may have to respond.
4. 3DS Sales. If the 3DS manages to hit its stride this year, it could bring in enough to offset the losses from the Wii U, at least partially.
All of these factors will tie into the decision, but have of them won't be known till E3, and the rest till autumn, at the earliest. As such, any estimate of when and how much would be pretty premature.
That said, if I had to guess, I'd say $70 off the Deluxe, discontinuation of Basic, during Q2 of next year.
I believe in honesty, civility, generosity, practicality, and impartiality.
