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Even on the 3DS, the Mario games will likely see a large drop from last generation.

Mario Kart 7 is not going to put up Mario Kart DS numbers, and NSMB2 is going to end up nowhere close to NSMB1 (I don't think NSMBU + NSMB2 combined will match NSMB1 actually).

Mario definitely benefited by the explosive popularity of things like Brain Training, Nintendogs, Wii Sports, and Wii Fit which brought in lots of casual/fringe players.