tl;dr, but forget that PS4 and Nextbox will cost $500. $400 is the sweet spot.
The thing is that the current gen casual market is long gone and have moved to mobile phones and whatnot, which means that Nintendo's blue ocean red ocean strategy didn't bear much fruit (they thought casual gamers would start to like core games). So Nintendo is back to the Gamecube situation and its 20 million core player base who love classic Nintendo games and that's about it.
Next gen casual market will be different - more social media and living room connectivity oriented than "family playing Wii Sports together" which was tha backbone of the Wii's success. This benefits Nextbox, and will be their chance to be roughly on par with PS4, despite being so uninterested in the core gamer.
My prediction:
PS4: 100 million (in a record long generation of upwards of 10 years)
Nextbox: 80 million
Wii U: 40 million (terminated early, after 5 years when Nintendo puts a new console out)
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