enrageorange said:
Define "casuals." Becaues 50mil seems to low. I would say they make up at least 2/3s of the Wii's install base. It's obviously impossible to know for sure because we really don't have a firm definition on what a casual gamer is. But Nintendo's premier core game over the last 2 gens has become Super Smash Bros. It has grown a decent 50% since the gamecube days. Nintendo's premier game for everyone core and casual is Mario Kart. It has grown nearly 500% since last gen. Even assuming core gamers were just as likely to buy both Smash Bros and Mario Kart, that still leaves 20mil copies of mario kart sold to casuals compared to 10mil sold to the core. So it would seem casuals make up the majority of the Wii audience. Which makes sense. 80million growth does not happen without massively expanding your audience. I'm guessing the Wii U will sell around 35mil. Unless nintendo thinks of something remarkable to regain their casual support in which case the sky is the limit |
I can agree with this logic 
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Though my final number would be a little higher. I think Wii did cause an increase in Nintendo's base number of fans compared to GameCube' 20m with 'newly made fans', or at least recovered a substantial number of early fans lost during those N64 and GC generations. With 100m sold, that has to have happened. Let's say that base is now indeed that 1/3rd, so about 35m more or less guaranteed sales. Final sales for WiiU should still end up at 50-60m considering 35m plus multiple-console owners plus remaining casuals. Some will still be there for WiiU. I don't believe the notion that Nintendo's core fanbase shrunk further during Wii's time, so any number below N64 or especially GC is out of the question.
My Nintendo heart is optimistic however and voted 60-70 in the poll .
