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i have absolutely no clue how much wii u will sell but i agree with you that many won't "leave" microsoft or sony because of their accounts. i think many underestimate that and some even understand it wrong (those who say people don't care that much about trophies or achievements).

it's about millions of people who don't want to lose their "friends" because those are the guys they played for years with. if you have some people you play regularly with in games like cod, tekken, halo, gran turismo or even uno and talked to them hundreds or thousands of hours you don't just say "who cares, i change console and will play with other people then" because it takes time to find the right people to play regularly with and you won't change that so easy as you did before we had those accounts and stuff. so, at least for people who play a lot online it's not that easy just to change.

that counts obviously only for those who only buy one console per gen and not those who buy minimum two consoles but this will be also a reason why nextbox and ps4 have already some million easy sales in my opinion