Nintendo's down, but not out.

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Nintendo's management of the Wii U from its announcement to the present has been a trainwreck nearly as bungled and miscalculated as Sony's handling of the PS3's early years, But the PS3 survived, and so can Wii U.

If Nintendo pull their finger out and get some actual games out there, it will do fine.

Core gamers won't spend $350 just for Mario Bros U and a bunch of 360 ports, and casuals won't spend $350 on any console.

The core will buy it once it becomes the box that plays Smash Bros, 3D Mario, HD Zelda, and the rest, and casuals will buy it once it drops in price and has Mario Kart.