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It depends on how big the initial adoption rates are for the two new consoles and if Nintendo can get the Wii U out of the "first year rut" by time the holiday season comes. There is a good chance that they can will upright it even if it means a 3DS like price cut (making the 3 sku's $250, $300 and $330). Plus I think there will be more "stop gap" games announced for the fall/winter season to beef up the release list. So I will say it has a good chance of beating the individual next gen numbers but probally not both. (To beat both the Wii U would need a serious lead.)