Now that Blu-Ray has won, will the PS3 become successful (in America)?

[TheSource]

Successful to me is a console that eventually reaches 10%+ of the total population of a country/region.  For simplicty, say the 10% is the total population of the country in the second June from launch.

So for the USA, 30.5 million+ will be my bar for success for PS3 and Wii in the USA.  Xbox 360 will have it more like 30.3 million+.  

Essentially this limits 'successful' USA consoles to

NES (~23 million needed to be mainstream, shipped over 30 million)

PS1 (~27 million needed to be mainstream, sell through in the mid to high 30 millions probably)

PS2 (~28 million needed to be mainstream, sellthrough north of 42 million)

My take is Wii ends up in the 35 million+ range in the USA - high enough to top everything but PS1.  Can't see PS3 or Xbox 360 topping past 30 million in the USA, although I think Xbox 360 will be less than 15% away as the SNES was.  Xbox 360 is tracking similarly to the N64 in the USA and Canada, but will likely improve a bit with price cuts to say SNES levels (23 million).  If all the SKUs are under $200 for 360 by the start of 2010, I can see it hitting 26-28 million in the USA, effectively doubling Xbox one in the USA.  PS3 I see having the lowest peak of the three in the USA, but with much more gradual declines.  A top year of 5-6 million, with only 10-20% declines for years after would be their best case scenario, and it would produce something like .7-2.5-3.5-5.5-4.8-4-3.5-2.7-2-1-.3 (in million/year).

A realistic, industry wide best case scenario breakdown would be like this in the USA:

Xbox 360:  0.6  3.9  4.6  5.0  4.4  3.4   2.7   2.0  1.1  .6 

Wii                    1.1  6.6  8.0  8.8  7.0   5.5   4.0   2.7   1.6  .9   .2  

PS3                   0.7  2.5  3.3  4.5  4.0   3.5   2.8   1.8   1.0  .4  

                 05'   06'   07'  08'   09'  10'  11'   12'    13'   14'   15'  16' 

Together that would mean more people were interested in HD TV/Blu Ray than what Wii offers (27+24 for 360 and PS3, respective, 51 million combined, 47 million for Wii), but I don't see either of them becoming dominant or reaching 10% of USA population in June 2007/2008 (.1 x 303/305 million)