I think the 4 million preorders cannot possibly be right. It is much more believable if you consider that number to be retailer orders, as every retailer will want to have plenty in stock when the game comes out.
But back on topic, not sure about the effect on overall sales. Why don't we consider another instance where a similar stunt was pulled with a high-profile game. In this case I'm talking about Metal Gear Solid 2 and the inclusion of a demo with the game Zone of the Enders. A lot of ZoE games were sold because people wanted the MGS2 demo, much like currently Crackdown's sales have been bolstered by the Halo 3 beta. How would people interpret MGS2 sales following that similar strategy?
http://vgchartz.com/worldtotals.php?name=metal+gear+solid&console=&publisher=&sort=Total
The numbers on this site put MGS2 at 2.29m in the U.S. (not sure if Japan had the demo, so I'll keep it to the U.S.) while MGS1 managed 2.81m. Does anyone hold the opinion that this drop was partially/all due to people being disappointed with the demo included with ZoE?
I don't have much of an opinion about this, but I thought it would be good for people to look at this as a similar strategy to what Microsoft is doing currently.
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