PS2 is now discontinued after 12 Years.

[Michael-5]

thismeintiel said:

Michael-5 said:

PS2 has sold 156.7 million now and has shipped 157.3 million. So if PS2 was discontinued like the link says, then DS needs to sell only 3.5 million units to top PS2. DS sold 3.5 million units in 2012.

So, with the rate it's falling, it's likely to break 1 million in USA alone for Q4 (hasn't dropped much this quarter, in this region for over a year). In Japan it's dead, and we can only expect 1 million from Europe. So DS should sell 2-2.5 million units in 2013, and then it would just need 1-1.5 million units for 2014, which is very very possible.

Also note that DS's rate of decline has flattened out now that 3DS has established itself. Comparing this weeks sales to the same time last week, DS only fell 37%, and that number is dropping with every week. Still, assuming a 40% decline, that means DS will sell about 1.225 million units less then 2012, which means 2.225 million sold (like I estiamted above lol). Then DS just needs 1.225 to tie PS2.

I believe shipments for the PS2 are closer to 157.5M, but we can still use your 157.3M.  Nintendo's financials will probably put the DS at ~154M at the end of the year.  In 2011, the DS dropped by 57%.  In 2012, if we don't have it under/overtracked in EU, it dropped 61%.  This year, it will probably be down ~64%, which would put it at ~155.3M shipped.  But, let's go with a better scenerio and say it only drops 50% this year.  That would put it at around ~155.8M shipped, which is still 1.5M away from what you think the PS2 is at this year.  Now, let's be crazy and say the DS only drops 40% in 2014.  That would put it at ~156.9M shipped, which is still 400K from where you think the PS2 is at now.  Now, let's stay crazy and say the DS only drops 40% in 2015.  That would put it at ~157.6M, FINALLY over the PS2.

Now, the only problem with this scenerio is it paints a rosy picture of the DS's declines, which won't be quite so rosy in real life.  That, and the fact that the DS WILL NOT be on shelves in 2015.  I'm pretty sure it will barely see 2014 before it gets discontinued.  Maybe in time for Nintendo to include its final numbers in their FY2013 report. 

But the thing is, the last 3 months, DS hasn't been down by 60%. Now that the 3DS has established itself, and $99 DS sales have begun to stabilize, I don't think DS sales will fall by that much. For the last few months, DS sales have only been down YoY by 30-40%. Last Week it was 36% WW, Quarter 4 of 2012 (A mass of 13 weeks) it was only down 34.1% - http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5016890

Most of that drop is because Japan has abandoned the DS now, but in USA the drop is much smaller, and since DS primarily in USA, we shouldn't expect much of a drop. DS dropped on 8.8% in USA from 2011 in Q4 2012 for this region. - http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=5016891

IF 40% drops are crazy to you, then the DS is going crazy good, because it's dropping less then 40% lol.

So if DS continues to follow the pattern it's been holding recently, sales realistically shouldn't drop below 2 million annually for 2013. I think 2.5 million is very possible.

Like I argued previously, it's possible that the DS tops the current PS2 value within the next 2 years, 3 is almost certain, unless discontinued.

So the only thing worth debating is the validity of the article. IF PS2 is discontinued, it's very likely DS surpasses it. If not, then it's unlikely because PS2 still sold 2.92 million units in 2012, which isn't that much less then DS.

Also you can't say for certain that DS will not be on shelves in 2015. 3DS is completely backward compatible with DS games, so in 2015 it's very probable there will still be a sizable DS software market, and who could have predicted that the PS2 would have been sold, at a reasonable pace, until it's sucessors sucessor release. PS2 sold over 50 million units after being replaced, I don't think anyone of us would have predicted that in 2006. So DS could shock us like PS2 did.