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MDMAlliance on 07 January 2013
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OceanJ said:
More specifically to your points and conclusion about the numbers.  I love data.  there are a couple of problems with your data...or at least parts that are not really factored in.  First, your US data is comparing full years. But as we know, DS launched at Christmas while 3DS launched in spring.  That means for DS it's first year Christmas was with gimped launch supplies, while 3DS was post-price drop and with a full year's supply of inventory build up and avaialable. So it's not comparing apples to apples.
 
But most of all is once you factor in that different launch period, the 3DS is actually following the DS very closely. If you look at sales history, and bring in the GBA history as well, you can see that for the first two years on the market the DS was way more popular in Japan than it was in the US.  It wasn't until year 3 that the DS caught up in America.  There are several reasons, but a very significant one is the launch of Pokemon titles which launch a year later in the US than in Japan.  GBA sales lasted strong about a year longer in the US than in Japan.  The same is true of DS which saw Pokemon arrive for Christmas just last year.  Expect US buyers to abandon the DS this coming year and start buying up 3DS in larger numbers, quickly catching up to Japan and following the overall sales trend and proportion of the DS.

Regarding the DS vs 3DS comparisons...yes the DS was launched in Nov of 2004 during the holidays and the 3DS was not.

I only brought the DS into the conversation for 1 point which is valid regardless:  In its 2nd year on sale, the DS trended dramatically up in total and average weekly sales, in all major regions.  But the 3DS in its second year trended down in both the U.S. and Europe.   This fact holds relevance regardless of launch dates.

Also just to clarify my agenda...like you I'm a Nintendo investor, and I'm trying to figure out what to do with my shares.  I was baffled by the current share-price.  And I couldn't figure out how if 3DS was outpacing the DS, and UP YoY globally from 2011 - 2012...AND it's selling for a profit!  HOW Nintendo shares could possibly be pushing new 52 week lows.

The answer to my dismay, is because the 3DS is in decline in Europe and the US and somehow Japan did so strong that it made up for those declines.  But Japan can't keep carrying the load for Nintendo.

No matter what the reason, the simple fact is the 3DS is on a bad trajectory in the US and Europe.


The thing about this is that there can be a multitude of reasons why there's this trend going on, and it is way too early to say it even is a "trend" quite yet.  

Companies sees their ups and downs all the time, just because they predicted high and got modest results doesn't really mean that things are turning to shit.  
Really I'm just trying to say it's a bit early to jump to conclusions just yet.  2012 has been a slow year for everyone.