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marc said:
thibje said:
Who will hit first the pre-estimated numbers and when?

Xbox 360 => 10 000 000
Wii => 8 000 000

My prediction
1st ) Xbox 360 => 10 000 000 => 10/06/07
2nd) Wii => 8 000 000 => 17/06/07



I honestly think that the Wii already matched or passed the 360's sales. Remember that MS uses 2 very questionable means of counting sales. The 1st is that their sales are those to retailers not sales to end users. And 2nd, they actually count replacement consoles as sales which they most certainly are not. My personal estimate is that at least 20-30% of the 360 sales were actually replacements since as far as I know, almost all 1st generation 360s failed after 1 year. I may be wrong with my estimate but if that is true, then the real numbers should be:

360 -> 7,000,000 to 8,000,000
Wii -> 8,000,000

You are wrong. On at least two counts.

Firstly, the numbers VGcharts reports is sell through from shops, in the same way as NPD/Media Create/etc does (Although with a smaller sample). Microsoft sends replacement Xboxes directly to the consumer, they do not force people to buy a new one or get them to get it from a store. Therefore, the numbers on this website are sell through. This means almost 10 million Xbox 360's sold.

Secondly, this means one of two things:

1) Microsoft does not count replacement systems as sold (unless they are new systems, perhaps. Which makes sense, since they will often be fixed up systems that have been sent in previously, they would not count the same system twice)
2) Less than 1 million consoles are defective, since the dfference between VGChartz sold and MS sold ~ 1 million. This does not include those sitting on store shelves around the world.

 



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