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I don't expect the Wii U to outsell the PS3/360 in 2013 either, it will likely stay in third place month to month.

It's the most expensive system.

It has the fewest games.

It's missing a lot of third party content (practically all the big third party games for the first half of next year are absent).

I don't see The Wonderful 101 or Pikmin 3 causing a hardware spike.

Nintendo could drop the price maybe next summer, but Sony/MS would likely respond by dropping the PS3/360 price too.