That money you spend on the Vita could have been spent on 3DS games or something. So yeah, those are lost 3DS sales. If Vita wasn't available would you have bought the 3DS XL? Maybe, right? The fact is that these 2 are competing for your money.
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Halfway, there are out of the 4mil vita users that will never own a nintendo system, same can be said other way around so the 100% Sony only users might be (i believe) over a mil that own the vita so there is no lost to 3DS.
But the number shouldn't be so high but the other way around is more understandable (Nintendo 3DS owners didn't buy Vita). Once a price cut comes (or whatever sony decides to do) they sales will increase alot. As for 3DS it will barely be over YoY and hopefully next year they'll put their killer games to boost sales over 20mil
