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I think Wii U will bomb next year until next fall, similar to the 3DS post launch.

After the Christmas/launch honeymoon is over the fact is, it'll be

- The most expensive console on market.

- With the least amount of games

- No "huge" Nintendo IP planned for 1st half 2013 -- no Mario Kart, 3D Mario, Zelda ... most likely those aren't going to be ready until fall or in Zelda's case, late 2014. Pikmin, Rayman, and Wonderful 101 all should be quirky, well reviewed games, but I don't see them moving hardware. 

- Missing a lot of multi-plat content -- GTA, MGS Rising, BioShock ... not that these honestly would even help Nintendo hugely as the audience is mostly on the PS3/360, but it doesn't help their case either.

- Nintendo Land is no Wii Sports and the Wii U tablet is no Wiimote. After Christmas, Wii U is not going to be able to cruise on Wii Sports/appeal of the Wiimote like the Wii did in 2007 until Metroid Prime and Super Mario Galaxy were ready.