There is a very good chance it will get to 5.00 million by the end of March. I doubt that they will make 5.5 though they are currently a little over 1.3 million units currently. (I was sleep deprived when I originally posted a similar one yesterday.) They should break 2 million by the end of the month, that leaves them with 3 million units to sell in three months, which comes up to 250k units on average per week so unless there is a massive sales slouch 5million is fairly obtainable. 5.5 million would need about 295k units on average and I think they will probably achieve 275k a week. So it will be close but will fall short by a small margin. And considering that they have 1.2 attach rate and they only needed 1 game to make a profit they should be profitable by the end of the year.
I will figure out a mock budget and try to pridict their loss/profit for 2012.
EDIT: I decided that it would take me way too long and since I going to need to get some sleep soon. So just quick and dirty and using the figures that I have above. I will go on the low end and say that they need the one game to break even, with an attach rate of .2 that would bring them in $2 of profit for each console sold with just the physical sales. ($10 a physical copy is the genralized Publisher take of the sales, so .2*$10=$2) That would come to $10,600,000-to-$15,900,000 (assuming by the end of March the attach rate would only go up by .1)
This is just for the physical copy games and doesn't include preiphials, digital and the impact that the increased sales for the Wii, DS and 3DS system and software are going to have for this quarter.
If any one wants to take a shot at it I'm guessing for full sized games they are still going to take $15 but $5 of that is fees for bandwidth and the DDP where the rest of what would be the retail share would go to the developer/financer. And the smaller titles the take will be less and probally something like 10% or $1-to-$2
