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1. They have no clear path
-No, MS just hasn't told you what they plan yet.

2. Xbox live gold
-Hasn't hurt them yet.

3. Lack of dedicated exclusives
-Halo is an island onto itself. But all signs point to many new IPs from new 1st party devs next gen

4. 360 2 + japan = dead on arrival
-Japan stopped being relevant and it's too small of a market to matter.

5. They focus too much on the competition
-It worked with the Xbox 360.