Right now I think Nintendo's problem is that 1st half 2012 lineup looks pretty soft.
Rayman, Wonderful 101, and Pikmin 3 may excite core Nintendo fans and those in the "know", but I don't think any one of them will be huge break out hits (as in 1+ million sellers).
The third party offerings for the system for the first six months look downright dismal with Aliens Colonial Marines and not much else. No GTAV, no BioShock, no Metal Gear Rising etc. Maybe they will come as ports later on, but by that time everyone will have played through them on the PS3/360.
My prediction is Nintendo will be forced to drop the price by $50 next summer. That said, I will say I think sales will from that point on recieve a nice boost and Nintendo will bring a lot of of their big guns in 2nd half 2013 -- Super Mario EAD Tokyo, Mario Kart U, and Wii Sports U, perhaps even Retro's game will arrive (which I will guess is Star Fox).
I also think Nintendo TVii will surprise a lot of people and become quite popular once Nintendo irons out some bugs.
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