Okay, I have the outlines of my "No PlayStation" history planned out. I have about 3,000 words of notes plus a bunch of tables, but here's the outline:
1991 to 1994: Not much is different.
1995: Sega releases the Saturn at the end of the year for $300, $100 less and months later than in our timeline. The delayed 5th generation and lack of a PSone allows the Genesis and SNES to sell more units.
1996: The N64 is launched with Super Mario 64. Meanwhile, the Saturn receives games like Resident Evil, Crash Bandicoot, Rayman, and Tomb Raider. The Saturn continues to receive a lot of the PSone's games in our timeline, though not all of them as we shall soon see.
1997: Final Fantasy 7 is released for the N64 in a very different form from ours. Nevertheless, it is a big deal JRPG in the west, though not as much as in real life. The N64 still gets Star Fox 64 and Goldeneye this year, while the Saturn receives sequels to Tomb Raider and Crash Bandicoot.
1998: The minimum price of both systems goes down to $150 over the summer, while the fall is as big a deal as in our timeline. The Saturn receives a version of Metal Gear Solid and Spyro the Dragon while the N64 gets Ocarina of Time.
1999: Microsoft does NOT announce the existence of the Xbox. The Xbox does not exist in this timeline, due to the lack of a threat from Sony. The Dreamcast is also delayed to 2000, since the Saturn is doing well enough in its fifth full year on the market.
2000: The Dreamcast comes out, with a launch lineup not entirely unrecognizable from our timeline. It includes the first proper Sonic game in years, along with various arcade ports. This version of the Dreamcast is, like the real thing, based on the highly popular NAOMI arcade cabinet. However, the RAM is not compromised due to the lowering costs over the year. This makes arcade-to-console ports extremely simple. Meanwhile, the N64 gets Dragon Quest 7, a big deal in Japan, and a price cut to just $100.
2001: Almost at the same time as in real life, the Game Boy Advance is released. This version, however, has a longer life, thanks to the lack of a rival in the PSP and Sega's unwillingness to try the handheld market again. The GameCube is launched later that year, with Luigi's Mansion and Smash Bros Melee of course, but also with Final Fantasy X, which gives the GameCube a clear niche in the Japanese market. Meanwhile, the Dreamcast receives games like Metal Gear Solid 2 and Super Monkey Ball.
2002-2005: Both consoles gain strength, neither side claiming victory. The Dreamcast gets Virtua Fighter 4, Sonic Adventure 2, and Sonic Heroes, the GameCube gets Super Mario Sunshine, Metroid Prime, Wind Waker, and Mario Kart, and the game boy gets SNES ports and the 3rd generation of Pokemon. Eventually, Nintendo sells more hardware, if only because of a wider appealing first party and decent 3rd party support. However, the Dreamcast has online play and more 3rd party exclusives, giving it a solid place in the market.
2006: This timeline's version of the Nintendo DS, the Game Boy Nitro, is released early this year. Think a somewhat weaker PSP without the media features but with the touchscreen. Essentially, what the logical successor to the Game Boy Advance would seem to be. Meanwhile, at the end of the year, both Sega and Nintendo release their 7th generation systems, the Pluto and the Revolution respectively. They are somewhat similar to our timeline's 360 and PS3, but are actually much weaker, though not as weak as our timeline's Wii. Basically, neither company is big enough to afford a $800 console at launch, so the generational jump is much more modest. Sonic 06 is meant to be a Pluto launch title, but ala Brawl, is delayed into 2007 for quality reasons, leaving the Pluto's launch lineup fairly bare. The Revolution, meanwhile, launches with a Zelda game and Viva Pinata from the declining Rare.
2007: The Pluto picks up some steam, but Nintendo gets an early start. Sonic gets onto the Pluto first, but Super Mario Galaxy is far more popular, and features stunning 720p graphics, which become the norm from 2007 onwards for major titles. Other major games this year include Assassin's Creed, which create a trend for open world games in this timeline that Grand Theft Auto 3 wasn't able to as a PC exclusive, Guitar Hero, which was only possible on full-sized DVD-based systems, and Sonic at the Olympic Games, Sega's successful answer to the Mario Sports series.
2008: The Revolution effectively defeats the Pluto this year, although only to the extent our timeline's SNES eventually beat the Genesis. Super Smash Bros Brawl, Revolution Fitness, and Mario Kart X sell millions, Nintendo finally opens an online store other than a virtual console, and all Sega has in response are MGS4, Sega SuperStar Tennis, and Valkyria Chronicles. Final Fantasy 13 is released as a multiplatform title, but 2/3 or 3/4 of copies sold are on the Revolution.
2009: This year starts off better for Sega, as it releases Sonic Unleashed and Yakuza 3, plus receiving a port of the popular Resident Evil 5. However, by the end of the year, the ball is back in Nintendo's court thanks to a new 2D Mario game. Also note the release of Batman: Arkham Asylum this year, which is seen as an alternative to the Assassin's Creed series, and Assassin's Creed 2, one of the generation's defining games.
2010-2011: N/A
2012: The successor to the Game Boy Nitro is released. The Nitro starts later than the DS, but lasts longer too thanks to the lack of competition. Also, I think it's about time Sega and Nintendo release new sytems, though Nintendo might wait till 2013.
Notes
*This gaming market is significantly smaller than real life's. Without corporate giants like Sony and Microsoft investing money in the console market, I'd say that generation-to-generation growth is minimal until the 7th generation, when Nintendo rediscovers 2D Mario and pushes fitness games.
*Part of the reason the console market is smaller is because some genres enter the market late or never. For example, Grand Theft Auto 3 never fit on GameCube or Dreamcast discs, forcing the open world genre to wait another genration. Likewise, since Halo and Call of Duty start on the PCs and only eventually, if ever migrate to the consoles, there is a limited shooter market on the consoles.
*Also note the lack of Sony and Microsoft 1st party franchises. No Gran Turismo exists in this timeline, meaning that realistic driving games are largely overshadowed by arcade and kart-styles counterparts. Without God of War and Uncharted, cinematic Action games are less prevalent. And without the PSP, the handheld market is somewhat smaller in the 7th generation, although Nintendo doesn't mind since they own the entire thing.
*Tekken and Ridge Racer were impossible on the Saturn and N64 alike. Therefore, these games remain arcade-exclusive, extending the life of the arcade for another year or two. The ease of arcade-to-Dreamcast ports also helps.
*Various games are very different. For example, Final Fantasy 7 is low on cinematics, but has far shorter load times and more consistent models. Metal Gear Solid, meanwhile, still has cinematics, but backgrounds and the like are largely 2D. And even later games like Assassin's Creed are limited by the relatively low power of the systems they're made for.
I've also calculated things like approximately how many million-sellers 5th and 6th generation systems might have, what they might be, how much software and hardware would have sold, and some basic console specs. Any thoughts?
Love and tolerate.
