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Five of them seems plausible, even if the Wii U ends up selling less than the Wii (I think it will, by a wide margin), Nintendo software has wings and rockets up their asses and seem to move without air resistance. There simply is no comparison in the gaming world today.
If the software is good enough, I wouldn't be entirely shocked if the Wii U managed as many 10 million sellers as the Wii despite a (probably) smaller userbase.