For Sony the damage is done. MS swayed a ton of people to switch brands and then shackled them with a Gamer Tag and a Gamer Score. All those people that keep track of their chievos will not leave them behind. MS knows this and will make sure their complete Gamer Score will be waiting for them on the Next Box.
Next gen is going to look a lot like this gen. The only difference I see will be that Nintendo won't sell record numbers to soccer moms and grandparents. I think it is far more likely we will see a fairly even three way split than see Sony take back their lost customers.








