I kind of agree that the U will struggle to compete in the core market unless Nintendo does something to compete in that market, more than getting multi-plats. They needs games like ZombiU, that's a good start.
I believe 3rd party exclusives will be the key, not 1st party exclusives, as Nintendo's 1st party exclusives generally don't appeal to the PS360 core crowd. They need to steal exclusives much like Microsoft has done in the past, in order to win marketshare. If they do that early enough, they have a good chance at snagging a considerable portion of that martket for at least half the gen, until the two other consoles quickly outpace the U HW-wise (through optimization and dev knowledge growth).
Though Pachter's idea is right, his solution is all wrong and his pessimism very misplaced.
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