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Can Wii U keep those "hardcore" players once the PS4/720 come out and start getting certain games exclusive and/or superior 3rd party versions of big games?

That's my bigger question. I'm sure it will have a solid launch, but 2013 Jan-May are going to be more indicative of the Wii U's long term success.

I hate to say it, but I think longterm Microsoft has a better formula for getting both casual players (Kinect stuff) and hardcore players (Halo + all the 3rd party content).

Wii U has BLOPS2 this year, but what about next year for example? That would probably be Modern Warfare 4 ... is MW4 going to run the same as it does on XBox 720? If the answer is no, then I see most of that fanbase sticking with the XBox brand.