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phenom08 said:

Lol Im a Wii fan, you think i dont know this? i know what sold the Wii, like you just said the full package. Thats what NInty is attempting to do with this Wii. The problem is you guys are always talking about novelty, it wasn't novelty, the Wii could still be alive if it was receiving support from Ninty still. It has always been about the package which is what Ninty is doing here as well. Its completely backwards compatible(so motion gaming is still there and we will obviously see another Wiisports), the gamepad allows for new experiences with video games(like the Wii), it offers NintendoTVii, and its own social network. This package could be as big as the Wiis. Im not saying you should believe this, Im just saying you should stop spewing this whole notion of the WIiU has no chance in hell, espicailly if you turn out wrong and it outpaces the Wii like the 3DS is doing to the DS.

Phenom, you need to understand my argument first before judging any implications. I wasnot saying the U has no chance in hell.

We both agree that the Wii was a novelty. The only difference between you and I is that the U can offer a novelty phenomenon once again.

I also agree that the U will be novel, but I don't believe it will be a novelty. I know this sounds confusing, but what I mean is that Nintendo boomed in 2006 due to the use of novelty and adequate marketing, the Wii had an explosive reaction and went viral. What happens with the U is that, even though it's novel (I agree with you), the recipe for explosion is not there due to what I consider a variant of the observer's paradox. Yes, this is purely speculative. I believe that the novelty factor is a consummable, and as a sentiment it is one that is very difficult to recreate.

The best argument you would have against that was your mention of the ipad2. Funny thing, in the first counter-point you raised, you mentioned the ipad2. In the same post you quoted to raise that counterpoint, I had mentioned two solutions to this paradox:

1) A significant hardware upgrade (like the ipad2).

and

2) Attractive exclusives.

The point #2 is very debatable, and it will be very difficult to tell how appealing NSMBU for instance will be appealing to its target audience, since the whole novelty sentiment as a consumable effect is inherent to that proposal as well. (ie the solution to the initial problem is plagued with the same problem). The same can be said about Wii Fit U, and all the Touch Generation games that sold gangbusters on DS, but are struggling to push a sale on the 3DS (Nintendogs, Brain Training). A similar argument can be made for NSMB, NSMB2, NSMBU, as well as Wii Fit U. The exception to this for some reason seems to be Just Dance 4, as that phenomenon is still on the upswing it seems (again, speculation, but the trends are there to point to that).

PosGamePlatformYearGenrePublisherNorth AmericaEuropeJapanRest of WorldGlobal
1 Just Dance 3 Wii 2011 Misc Ubisoft 5.39 3.11 0.00 0.95 9.44
2 Just Dance 2 Wii 2010 Misc Ubisoft 5.62 2.74 0.01 0.90 9.27
3 Just Dance Wii 2009 Misc Ubisoft 3.21 2.87 0.00 0.73 6.81