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I'm skeptical. I do think they will have a very good first 2 years, but long term I think they're going to have some problems, especially if MS/Sony copy or do something similar with screen controllers/tablet support.

The N64, GCN, and Wii all had decent first 2-3 years on the market, but really had some poor showings those last two years as third parties tend to bail out as time goes on.