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Sales at or above 3 million by December 31st this year for NSMB2, easily. It'll be in the Top 5 or 10 through the rest of the year and beyond, and a likely 3DS bundled with it for Black Friday will help a lot, too. It'll do much better than Paper Mario for 3DS, even though PM is the "big holiday game" and NSMB2 is from August. Doesn't matter.