I hate to say it but other than some nasty shots at the original poster who has posted some decent points, i'm not seeing much in the way of rebuttals other than fanboi WII hate attacks.
Nintendo was successful with WII on a number of fronts...innovation, pricepoint and some damn good strategic positioning. They also relied on an emerging market of a somewhat more casual gamer that really didn't exist before.
If you look at those points, Nintendo will certainly bring more of the same however I cannot envision a situation where either of the other 2 are going to get caught with their pants down like they did with WII.
When I think about the casual gamer aspect that was critical for a ton of their success, I suspect that that market is at least partially saturated...for ANY other console to break into and dislodge the WII from a household that isn't going to really care about tablets and flashy graphics and all that. They really didn't care about flashy graphics and high end technology during the current generation, why would they care about it going forward. Lets remember that a crapton of people went out and grabbed WII's because it was the THING to have for a couple Christmases. Those people didn't really buy a console based on a perceived need...they wanted it because everyone else wanted it. There are a TON of those WII's that rarely get turned on now...
I do not see the next generation blowing out the same numbers at this generation did....at least not initially. Many people stepped into the console market in curiousity. I do not see thsoe same people being interested in upgrading. I see things picking up or staying stable as more and more people replace their TV's with HD and go to streaming at their TVs with a console.
I just don't see ANY console cracking its way into a number of homes the WII opened up. Without a vastly more interesting product that tugged on peoples heart strings like the WII did, Nintendo cannot possibly rape and pillage like they did. Most scary for them is that they must enter the space that Sony and Microsoft are making their bread and butter in...the HD market. It's going to be awefully difficult for them to separate themselves from the other two in a market that has already existed and already been beaten to death over the last 6 years.
Lastly and very importantly...price point. Without taking an absolute bath, the Wii U is not going to be $199.00. I suspect it'll be hard to make the $299.00 price point...at least initially. Say what you will however the $199 pricepoint was instrumental in MILLIONS of sales for Nintendo. For people on a tight budget it was an absolute no brainer...crazy fun console, couple hundred bucks, nice and compact, simple to use...frig why buy anything else. Price point is huge for some people. The 3DS is a different beast....its hard to make that price and do more than an incremental upgrade to your existing machine. Now people who look at the 3DS point to the fact that people are slurping them up faster than a drunk at an open bar however the handheld market is a much more zealous environment than that which the WII owned. There a a TON of WII owners that wouldn't bother to spell zealous when it comes to the dust gathering addition to their entertainment system...let alone be that.
Nintendo must differentiate themselves from Sony and Microsoft if they want to enjoy the same success they had with Wii. Unfortunately, the only way they can justify an update is going to take them into the teeth of why people bought PS3 and Xboxes.
