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TheShape31 on 25 July 2012
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Conegamer said:
TheShape31 said:
pezus said:
Turkish said:
SOLIDSNAKE08 said:
how many wii's sold so far in 2012?


1.5m

Around 5-6m for the year, I'd say. Absolutely horrible drop

We're over half way through the year, and the holidays are going to be focused around the Wii U.  They'll be lucky to sell any more than 4m by the end of the year.  And I figure they'll be selling half as much as the year before from then on.  It may very well take several years for the Wii to hit 105m total sales, which makes it all the more possible for PS3 to be in a legitimate race to that number.


So you're saying it will only sell another 1.6mil this year? Assuming 45k a week until November, the Wii would be at around 3mil come October 31st. So it'd sell 1mil in the holidays, or 80k per week... You realise the Wii was selling nearly 1mil each week last year, right? It's not going to be down 90% YoY, my word...and this is if the Wii is lucky?? Even if it's down the current 60%, it'd sell 5mil. So, at least be realistic. It'd be odd if it doesn't sell through 100mil, or near it (over 99mil) come the end of the year, or 3mil from here. That is realistic, whereas your prediction isn't, despite the fact the PS3 can sell 40mil in 4 years from here? It'd be good if it does half that. I apologize for being blunt, but this thread has gone on long enough. Why the PS3 is immune to heavy YoY drops (it's down well over 20% for the month, and down over 10% for the year FYI) baffles me, and it should you. AND NO CRAY NINPIE!


Your argument is far from flawless... 

1.) Why would you assume that the Wii sells 45k/week through October?  Every week Wii sales drop considerably.  By November, they will be selling considerably less.  But even using your 45k/week numbers, they're barely breaking 2m at the end of October (14 weeks x 45,000 = 630,000 + 1.5m = 2.13m), so where is this 3m number coming from?  I think 2m is a much more rational expectation, yes?

2.) 80k units/week does not equal 1m for the holidays (assuming you're talking about Nov-Dec).  9 weeks x 80,000 = 720,000, but do you really think they're going to sell 80k/week AGAINST THE WII U???  Pfft, cut your 1m in half, and there's 2.5m.  Now there are big weeks (Black Friday, etc.) where consoles will sell far more than normal.  But considering the loss of interest in the Wii, and the fact that Nintendo isn't going to be pushing their old system against their new one, and it's not going to get anywhere near the numbers from last year.  Also take into consideration that the HD twins will likely get price cuts, along with the PS3's redesign, and what reason does the general consumer have to spend money on an old, abandoned white box? 

4m units by the end of the year, at the most.  Your idea of realistic is based upon numbers from another year where the market was completely different.  When I'm right, I'll be sure to quote this so you can feel a bit silly for showing so much hubris. ;)