Stickball I more or less agree with your 'summer' averages, but when I look at the 26 weeks (1st 1/2 of 2007) overall, I'm not expecting the averages to change dramatically. Big Brain Academy, Mortal Kombat and Mario Party 8 should keep Wii hardware up in the Americas, RE4 will help in Japan, and Europe is getting shafted in terms of shipments, so I think it is the region furthest away from having supply meet demand..so I expect Wii to stay up there as well.
As for PS3, I don't know how much lower it can get in Japan. The worst of the drought is coming to an end soon, so I don't see it dipping below 7500 in Japan. Trusty Bell and Forza I think deserve a bit more credit than you are giving them..maybe 2-3 weeks of 5000 for 360 in Japan. Sales for 360 will go up in the USA with Forza, Silver Surfer, The Bigs, and he other decent software coming out through July 1. Spiderman 3 provided a boost, so I think we can say 360 has at least some appeal to Comic Book fans (shocker). PS3 sales will drop like a rock in Europe - but I think they are going to become stable in the Americas at 20,000 per week (+/- 2,000). If PS3 sales get to say...15,000 in Europe, 15,000 in the Americas, and 5,000 in Japan then it is over.
Right after the 26 week period ends, I expect DQ: Swords & Lair to boost Wii & PS3 in Japan, which will may jumpstart the fall sales trends in Japan...
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
