Can X360/PS3 reach 100 million sold units?

[Troll_Whisperer]

superchunk said:

Troll_Whisperer said:

PS3 will be at around 75m at the end of this year. Next year they'll be riding the price cut/remodel effect, but let's say that even with those it just avoids falling by a huge margin. Let's say it still falls to 10m sold for the year.

That leaves PS3 at 85m, just as PS4 launches. You don't see PS3 selling those 15m LT? Even in developing nations where they're very slow to adopt HW? PS2 sold 50m+ after this gen started, PS3 only needs  30% of that, and it's selling at around 60% the pace of PS2.

There's a real possibility. It's not guaranteed, but it can't be dismissed.

(rounding off)

PS3 sold over 14m in 2010 and 2011. Its sold less than 5m so far this year. Its currently standing at 65m right now. I won't hit 75m this year. It will sell less than 2 million before October and then maybe another 5 or 6 million during the holidays. So, I'd peg it at 8m tops for rest of year meaning an MAX of 13m for 2012... and that's including a solid gain due to a greater than $50 price drop before October.

So I think by end of 2012 we're looking at PS3 being about 73m max.

Then PS4 starts to really heat up in 2013 along with all the other next-gen talk from WiiU, neXtBox, PS4, and any other TV connected boxes with Android and iOS.

With that all being confirmed launch "by end of 2013", we'll see drops in PS360 sales compared to the previous year. I'd think PS3 would sell at best around 8m in 2013. (total now is about 81m).

Then in 2014 PS3 will be on its last two years. During those final years it won't have the momentum a clear leading console has with tons of exclusives. It will have a $99 price tag and that's about it. It will NOT sale 20m units in those final one or two years before Sony pulls it.

NES/SNES/PS1/PS2 all had one thing in common that allowed them to sale for many, many years after their successors launched. MASSIVE market leadership and exclusives. PS3 doesn't have that. Wii doesn't even have that.

PS360 will be lucky to break 90m by the time they are discontinued.

PS2 is 10 times what the PS3 is. How many units each year did it sell from 2006 to now?

PS3 sold 14.13m units in 2011 and is trending 12% down YTD, meaning that even without a cut and redesign it would hit 73m. You rounded off far too low. Even if it sold 13m like you said it'd be closer to 74m.

And I doubt it'd go from 13m (your pessimistic prediction) to 8m (a 40% drop) while riding the cut/redesign effect.

So it's much more realistic to expect 85m by the beginning of 2014.

After that... it's anyone's guess. But I think it can make it.