Will all of the Big 3 survive next generation?

[Michael-5]

Jay520 said:

Michael-5 said:

We're getting less and less exclusives? Last time I checked PS3 had more first party exclusives, and 360/Wii have more exclusives then their predecessors in general.

I'm talking about exclusives in general. Not just first party exclusives. The vast majority of developers are 3rd party developers. In past generations, 3rd parties would develop games exclusively to one console, whichever was the market leader. Now, nearly every 3rd party developer makes multiplatform games. As evident by the PS3 & 360 very similar library. This generation, the Wii was the only console with a mainly exclusive library. This means that this generation has seen less exclusives than the immediate generations before it.

Also consider the fact that Nintendo intends to change next generation by luring in as many 3rd parties to their system as possible. It is likely that there will be no console with mainly an exclusively library. The only exclusives next generation will be first party. And of course, the amount of first-party developers pale in comparison to number of third-party developers. Thus, next generation, we will be getting even less exclusives.

That's not a fair comparision because PS2 monopolized the market last gen and got so many exclusives because of that. Now that this gen, sales between the 3 main consoles are more averaged out, it makes much less sense to make an exclusive title.

If your going to count exclusives all together, it's a much fairer comparision to compare the number of PS2 exclusives to that of HD exclusives (games not on the Wii), and if you do that, there are still much more this gen.

 

I get your point, but it's more accurate to say that consoles are becoming more and more similar, and the market is being divided, so 3rd party exclusives are no longer staying exclusive to one platform. Regardless, if that were the case, then if 1 console leaves, I would think all similar consoles would die out too. I.E. if the next X-Box and PS4 are as similar as the 360 and PS3, then if one of the two couldn't compete with sales I would expect both systems to die out.

Either way, there is more diversity now then their was before. Last Gen 3/4 consoles sold were PS2's and the other 1/4 were High graphic Gamecube and X-Box's. This gen it's 1/2 and 1/2 with HD systems and SD system, each with their own unique library.

Anyway, I think next gen will be the same as this one, but there might be a 3rd Higher graphic system by Valve, so even more competition.