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1. The "Wii" brand won't help much here - why? Because the casuals liked the Wii for its motion sensing and ease of use. They bought the Wii to play Wii Sports, Wii Fit, etc. etc. Casuals have pretty much forgotten the Wii, when they hear about the Wii U they will be like "is that an accessory for that Wii thing we bought and threw in the attic a few years ago honey?" which leads me to my second point.

2. The fact is Nintendo has lost momentum. I don't see the hype of a new Zelda or even Smash Bros. reaching what they did with Twilight Princess and Brawl. Skyward Sword fell flat on its face (not many people cared about it) and a new Smash Bros. seems like more of the same.

There just isn't any hype about the Wii U. It's like... whatever. The Wii started off hot and continued its streak for YEARS. The hype for the Wii was MASSIVE.

After E3 2006 people were giving the Wii pretty much every award they could give it. People wanted it. The media was hyped up. On the other hand.... the Wii U has had NEGATIVE reaction, the media is giving it NEGATIVE press if any, and no one seems to care. Oh Nintendo Land whoopdy doo, won't have NEAR the effect Wii Sports had for the Wii.

3. Depends on price too. Which is unknown as of now but from what I have seen anything over $250 and it's not worth it. This controller will not give people a reason to spend $100 more on last gen technology.

4. Nintendo franchises guarantee at least 20 million sales.

So I will say this will sell 40 million at the most.